Mathematical Modelling of Epidemic Spread: A Review of Models and Forecasting Techniques
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36676/mdmp.v1.i3.37Keywords:
Epidemic Modeling, Mathematical Models, SIR Model, SEIR ModelAbstract
Mathematical modeling has become a critical tool in understanding and predicting the spread of epidemics. various mathematical models and forecasting techniques used to analyze epidemic dynamics. We begin by discussing classical compartmental models, such as the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model, which has laid the foundation for understanding disease spread. We then explore more advanced models, including the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) and SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) models, which incorporate additional compartments to account for latent periods and reinfection cycles. The review also covers stochastic models that account for random variations in transmission rates and population dynamics, offering insights into the variability and uncertainty inherent in epidemic forecasts. We examine the role of agent-based models, which simulate the interactions of individual agents to capture complex behavioral patterns and their impact on epidemic spread.
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